Friday, March 13, 2009

When a life is based on statistics

12th March was the 5 months appointment with my gynaecologist. As I had mentioned earlier, I was looking forward to this checkup for a few reasons.

First, I wanted to know the results of the blood test taken at 4 months. Second, from that blood test I wanted to know what th next steps would be. Third, I wanted to see the progress of the baby.

That wasn't too much to expect, right?

I had put on another 1.7kg, the urine test came out okay in so far as sugar level is concerned, and my blood pressure was 100/65.

Then the doctor interpreted the blood test results.

And they were.......

I had an Increased Risk for Down's Syndrome and a Low Risk for Neural Tube Defects.

The Increased Risk for Down's Syndrome is based on :

That at my age statistically there is 1 in 47 (0.02%) chance of getting a Down's Syndrome baby but my blood test revealed that I had 1 in 133 (0.007%) chance of getting a Down's Syndrome baby.

Apart from that the doctor said, I had a good level of hemoglobin, cholesterol levels were also okay, and I still have the immunisation from rubella and hepatitis.

We proceeded to have the ultrasound scan and Dr Nik went through quite a bit of detail in the baby's development. Everything and that meant the brain, skull, limbs, heart, and I can't remember what else, were indicative of a normal baby.

After much trying, Dr Nik finally was able to scan in between the legs and it is confirmed a BOY!!! MrM noticed the little birdie and something shooting out from it and asked the doctor "Is the baby peeing, Doctor?" and good old Dr Nik said "Yes looks like he is and that is a very rare sight to be able to see that in the womb. That is a good sign, though, that the kidneys are working....."

We sat down again to discuss the blood test results and what our options were.

In summary, there is 0.007% chance that the baby could have chomosomal abnormalities but performing an amniocentesis has a 1% chance of miscarriage or bleeding of the placenta.

The ultrasound is indicative of a normal baby and the nuchal translucency (NT) at 10 weeks was 1.2mm is also indicative of a normal baby (abnormality would be NT of 4 to 5mm or greater)

Therefore the first order decision is whether we would want to find out and confirm the 0.007% chance of whether the baby has any chromosomal abnormalities at the risk of 1% chance of a miscarriage.

The second order decision, if the roulette wheel points to me and confirms the 0.007% chance, then the question of whether we are prepared to terminate the pregnancy.

Duh? I had a headache just listening to all the statistical probabilities. And that coming from someone like me whose profession relies on statistics i.e. that based on a normal distribution, the value at risk of USD10 million at 95% confidence interval means that the maximum loss a portfolio could have with a 95% statistical confidence is USD10 million which also means that there is 5% chance that the loss could be greater than USD10 million.

I think I was most disturbed not so much of the statistical probabilities but the question of terminating the pregnancy if we knew that the baby indeed had chromosomal abnormalities. What went through my mind was just a few minutes ago we saw the baby moving actively in utero and the next minute you are discussing about termination.

Much as this baby was unexpected, especially at my age, I have accepted this as God's gift to us and God has chosen this gift and challenge for me. (Al-Baqarah beginning of ayat 286 ==> Allah tidak akan memberati seseorang melainkan apa yang terdaya olehya) I cannot bring myself to even think about termination even if I found out.

But I was disturbed and started thinking about the 0.007% chance and less of the rest of the good news based on the ultrasound. I was mentally tired by the end of the appointment and true to my downside risk nature, I started thinking of all worst case scenarios.

MrM sent me to work and I was not able to concentrate coupled with the headache I had since morning. I excused myself from the meeting at 11:30am and left for lunch with HH. I needed to get out. I needed someone to talk to. Even then I texted MrM and expressed my feelings. That I am feeling so depressed and so down. I was on the verge of tears. I wanted to go home and sleep this off.

Lucky for me MrM had meetings, which meant I couldn't go home and after lunch I was involved in a series of interesting discussions, meetings and conference calls. In a way, my mind was no longer focused on this morning and some issues at work that needed immediate resolution allowed me to forget.

I left office at 6:45pm and on the way home, MrM, sensing that I was still thinking about this morning said that this was a small risk compared to the risk we take everyday in our lives. I guess he was trying to soothe my worries away and I needed someone to put things into perspective for me. MrM said that there were more good things mentioned by Dr Nik than they were negative.

I agree. I just needed to have that faith. Being pregnant as many times as I have (this is the 7th after all, with three resulting in the children I have now) I have always tended to worry anyway.

I am due 31 July 2009 but will be able to deliver this baby at 37 weeks, which is on 10 July 2009. That would be a Friday. I am thinking of the week of 13 uly 2009.

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